RESUMEN
The nature and dynamics of mutations associated with the emergence, spread, and vanishing of SARS-CoV-2 variants causing successive waves are complex. We determined the kinetics of the most common French variant ("Marseille-4") for 10 months since its onset in July 2020. Here, we analyzed and classified into subvariants and lineages 7453 genomes obtained by next-generation sequencing. We identified two subvariants, Marseille-4A, which contains 22 different lineages of at least 50 genomes, and Marseille-4B. Their average lifetime was 4.1 ± 1.4 months, during which 4.1 ± 2.6 mutations accumulated. Growth rate was 0.079 ± 0.045, varying from 0.010 to 0.173. Most of the lineages exhibited a bell-shaped distribution. Several beneficial mutations at unpredicted sites initiated a new outbreak, while the accumulation of other mutations resulted in more viral heterogenicity, increased diversity and vanishing of the lineages. Marseille-4B emerged when the other Marseille-4 lineages vanished. Its ORF8 gene was knocked out by a stop codon, as reported in SARS-CoV-2 of mink and in the Alpha variant. This subvariant was associated with increased hospitalization and death rates, suggesting that ORF8 is a nonvirulence gene. We speculate that the observed heterogenicity of a lineage may predict the end of the outbreak.
RESUMEN
We propose a new hypothesis that explains the maintenance and evolution of MHC polymorphism. It is based on two phenomena: the constitution of the repertoire of naive T lymphocytes and the evolution of the pathogen and its impact on the immune memory of T lymphocytes. Concerning the latter, pathogen evolution will have a different impact on reinfection depending on the MHC allomorph. If a mutation occurs in a given region, in the case of MHC allotypes, which do not recognize the peptide in this region, the mutation will have no impact on the memory repertoire. In the case where the MHC allomorph binds to the ancestral peptides and not to the mutated peptide, that individual will have a higher chance of being reinfected. This difference in fitness will lead to a variation of the allele frequency in the next generation. Data from the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic already support a significant part of this hypothesis and following up on these data may enable it to be confirmed. This hypothesis could explain why some individuals after vaccination respond less well than others to variants and leads to predict the probability of reinfection after a first infection depending upon the variant and the HLA allomorph.